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The federal budget surplus, which had narrowed significantly in the early
months of 2007, expanded in subsequent months and amounted to 7.5% of
GDP in January-August. However, this figure includes sizeable payments related
to the sale of the Yukos oil firm, and expenditure is still expected to grow
rapidly in the final months of the year, with the full-year surplus estimated to
fall to around 4% of GDP. Beginning in 2008, the government will begin to
operate on the basis of a three-year budget. This will help to improve budget
planning, but only to a degree, given that budget assumptions will still be
purely indicative beyond the first year. Budget transparency will also benefit
from a move to separate energy-related earnings from other revenue inflows.
Excluding energy earnings, the draft federal budget proposes a deficit of 6.6% of
GDP in 2008 and 5.4% of GDP in 2009, which translates into a surplus of 0.2%
and 0.5% of GDP in these two years, respectively, once energy earnings are
included. The government should be able to post a slightly larger surplus, given
that both inflation and oil prices are likely to be higher than is assumed in its
budget draft.
months of 2007, expanded in subsequent months and amounted to 7.5% of
GDP in January-August. However, this figure includes sizeable payments related
to the sale of the Yukos oil firm, and expenditure is still expected to grow
rapidly in the final months of the year, with the full-year surplus estimated to
fall to around 4% of GDP. Beginning in 2008, the government will begin to
operate on the basis of a three-year budget. This will help to improve budget
planning, but only to a degree, given that budget assumptions will still be
purely indicative beyond the first year. Budget transparency will also benefit
from a move to separate energy-related earnings from other revenue inflows.
Excluding energy earnings, the draft federal budget proposes a deficit of 6.6% of
GDP in 2008 and 5.4% of GDP in 2009, which translates into a surplus of 0.2%
and 0.5% of GDP in these two years, respectively, once energy earnings are
included. The government should be able to post a slightly larger surplus, given
that both inflation and oil prices are likely to be higher than is assumed in its
budget draft.
Михалков Н.С.
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